Rocket BoysTools of the Trade

Statistics of Repeated Launches

Fly the same rocket again and again: the mean says what to expect, and the range and standard deviation say how much to trust it.

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From the story. The Rocket Boys numbered their rockets, and by May 1960 they had reached Auk XXXI. With many flights to compare, telling a real improvement from luck takes statistics. (More in October Sky.)

Fly the same rocket five times and you get five heights, because wind, launch angle and the motor vary a little. The mean is the typical value. The range (highest minus lowest) is a quick measure of spread. The standard deviation is a better one: roughly the typical distance of a flight from the mean.

Key idea

$\bar x = \dfrac{\sum x_i}{n}$,   median = middle value in order,   range = max − min,   $s = \sqrt{\dfrac{\sum (x_i - \bar x)^2}{n - 1}}$. A change in design is believable when the new mean differs from the old by more than the spread.
Each dot is one launch. The red line is the mean; the gold band is one standard deviation either side.

Worked example: Five flights

Heights: $310, 330, 300, 340, 320$ m. Find the mean and standard deviation.
  1. Mean: $1{,}600/5 = 320\ \text{m}$.
  2. Differences: $-10, 10, -20, 20, 0$; squares add to $1{,}000$.
  3. $s = \sqrt{1{,}000/4} = \sqrt{250} \approx 15.8\ \text{m}$.

Answer: $\bar x = 320\ \text{m}$, $s \approx 15.8\ \text{m}$

Common mistake

Dividing by $n$ instead of $n - 1$ for a sample, or reporting the range as if it were the standard deviation. The range depends only on the two most extreme flights.

Practice

Pass with 3 right answers, the last 2 in a row. Each right answer earns 2 XP.

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Sources and further reading

  • OpenStax, Introductory Statistics (Rice University): measures of center and spread
@teddyrookbook GitHub Sources and credits