ProbabilityJoint Distributions

Joint Densities

P((X, Y) ∈ R) = ∬_R f(x, y) dA; set up the limits for regions such as {x < y}.

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When $(X, Y)$ is not uniform, probability is still found by integrating, now with a density over a region of the plane. The limits come from sketching the region, exactly as in double integrals over general regions. This generalizes geometric probability and the joint pmf.

Key idea

A joint density satisfies $f(x, y) \ge 0$ and $\iint f\,dA = 1$, and for a region $R$, $$P((X, Y) \in R) = \iint_{R} f(x, y)\,dA.$$ Integrate only where the event holds and $f > 0$.

Why it works

As in one dimension, $f(x, y)$ is probability per unit area: a small rectangle near $(x, y)$ with sides $\Delta x$ and $\Delta y$ has probability about $f(x, y)\,\Delta x\,\Delta y$. Adding over a region gives a double Riemann sum, whose limit is the double integral. Outside the support the density is 0, so those parts of the region add nothing. The work is in the limits: sketch the support and the event, then for each $x$ read off the range of $y$ that lies in both.
The density x plus y on the unit square, darker where it is larger, with the triangle where x plus y is less than 1. The slice shows the inner limits: y runs from 0 to 1 minus x.
The same joint density drawn as a surface: probability is the volume under it.

Worked examples

Worked example: The constant

$f(x, y) = c(x + y)$ on the unit square. Find $c$.
  1. $$\int_{0}^{1}\int_{0}^{1} (x + y)\,dy\,dx = \int_{0}^{1} \left(x + \frac{1}{2}\right)dx = 1$$
  2. So $c = 1$.

Answer: $c = 1$

Worked example: A triangle region

With $f(x, y) = x + y$ on the unit square, find $P(X + Y < 1)$.
  1. For each $x$ in $[0, 1]$, $y$ runs from 0 to $1 - x$.
  2. Inner: $$\int_{0}^{1 - x} (x + y)\,dy = x(1 - x) + \frac{(1 - x)^{2}}{2} = \frac{1 - x^{2}}{2}$$
  3. Outer: $\int_{0}^{1} \frac{1 - x^{2}}{2}\,dx = \frac{1}{2} \cdot \frac{2}{3} = \frac{1}{3}$.

Answer: $\frac{1}{3}$

Worked example: A density on a triangle

$f(x, y) = 2$ for $0 \le x \le y \le 1$. Find $P(Y > 2X)$.
  1. The event $y > 2x$ inside the triangle: $x$ from 0 to $\frac{1}{2}$, and $y$ from $2x$ to 1 (then $y > x$ automatically).
  2. $$\int_{0}^{1/2}\int_{2x}^{1} 2\,dy\,dx = \int_{0}^{1/2} 2(1 - 2x)\,dx = 1 - \frac{1}{2} = \frac{1}{2}$$

Answer: $\frac{1}{2}$

Supports can be unbounded. If $f(x, y) = \lambda\mu e^{-\lambda x - \mu y}$ for $x, y > 0$ (two independent exponential times), then $$P(X < Y) = \int_{0}^{\infty}\int_{x}^{\infty} \lambda\mu e^{-\lambda x - \mu y}\,dy\,dx = \int_{0}^{\infty} \lambda e^{-(\lambda + \mu)x}\,dx = \frac{\lambda}{\lambda + \mu}:$$ the clock with the larger rate tends to ring first.

Common mistake

Integrating over the whole support instead of the part where the event happens, or using limits that run outside the support, where $f = 0$. Check: sketch both regions; the limits must describe their overlap, and the answer must lie between 0 and 1.

Practice

Pass with 3 right answers, the last 2 in a row. Each right answer earns 3 XP.

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Sources and further reading

  • MIT OpenCourseWare 18.05, Introduction to Probability and Statistics (Spring 2014), readings on joint distributions and joint densities
  • Grinstead and Snell, Introduction to Probability (2nd revised edition, American Mathematical Society; free from Dartmouth College), chapter 4 (Conditional Probability), section 4.2, continuous conditional probability
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