Prob and StatsInference

Testing a Claim about a Mean

Carry out a one-sample t test.

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A test for a mean follows the same steps as a test for a proportion, with the t distribution from confidence intervals for a mean in place of z.

Key idea

To test $H_0: \mu = \mu_0$: $$t = \dfrac{\bar{x} - \mu_0}{s/\sqrt{n}}, \quad df = n - 1.$$ The p-value is the area beyond t under the t curve, in the direction of $H_a$. Conditions: a random sample, and a roughly normal population or a large sample.

Why it works

If $H_0$ is true, $\bar{x}$ varies around $\mu_0$ with standard deviation $\sigma/\sqrt{n}$. We estimate that with $s/\sqrt{n}$, which makes the standardized statistic follow a t distribution with $n - 1$ degrees of freedom rather than the normal. A t of $-2.5$ says the sample mean is two and a half standard errors below the claimed mean.
The t curve with 15 degrees of freedom; the shaded left tail beyond t = −2.5 is the p-value of the first example.

Worked example: Underfilled boxes?

Cereal boxes are labeled 500 grams. A random sample of 16 boxes has $\bar{x} = 497.5$ g and $s = 4$ g. Test $H_0: \mu = 500$ against $H_a: \mu < 500$ at $\alpha = 0.05$.
  1. SE $= \dfrac{4}{\sqrt{16}} = 1$; $t = \dfrac{497.5 - 500}{1} = -2.5$ with $df = 15$.
  2. p-value: the area below $-2.5$ under the t curve with 15 df, about $0.012$ (from software).
  3. $0.012 < 0.05$: reject $H_0$. There is convincing evidence that the boxes are underfilled on average.

Answer: t = −2.5, p ≈ 0.012: reject.

Worked example: A two-sided test

A battery maker claims a mean life of 40 hours. A random sample of 25 batteries has $\bar{x} = 41.2$ and $s = 3$. Test $H_0: \mu = 40$ against $H_a: \mu \ne 40$.
  1. SE $= \dfrac{3}{\sqrt{25}} = 0.6$; $t = \dfrac{41.2 - 40}{0.6} = 2$ with $df = 24$.
  2. Two-sided p-value: $2 \times P(T > 2) \approx 0.057$.
  3. $0.057 > 0.05$: fail to reject. The data do not give convincing evidence that the mean differs from 40 hours.

Answer: t = 2, p ≈ 0.057: fail to reject.

Common mistake

Using the normal table for t, or taking $df = n$. With 15 df, a two-sided cutoff is $2.131$, not $1.96$. Check your df and use the t distribution whenever the standard error uses $s$. And remember: "fail to reject" is not "accept."
Tests and intervals agree: a two-sided test at $\alpha = 0.05$ rejects $H_0: \mu = \mu_0$ exactly when $\mu_0$ falls outside the 95% confidence interval.

Practice

Pass with 3 right answers, the last 2 in a row. Each right answer earns 3 XP.

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Sources and further reading

  • OpenStax, Introductory Statistics 2e, section 9.6 Hypothesis Testing of a Single Mean and Single Proportion
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