Markets & Economy · VIX
VIX
The market’s fear gauge: VIX history since 1990, where today sits, VIX futures, and what a VIX level implies for the size of moves.
VIX since 1990 daily close · gray = recessions
Dashed lines at 20 (roughly the long-run average) and 30 (stress). Drag to zoom into episodes like 2008 or March 2020.
Expected-move calculator
The VIX is the market’s estimate of the S&P 500’s annualized volatility over the next 30 days. Scale by the square root of time: one month ≈ VIX ÷ √12, one day ≈ VIX ÷ √252. About two-thirds of the time the move stays within 1 standard deviation, about 95% within 2. Real markets have fatter tails than this.
How often has the VIX been at each level?
Share of trading days since 1990 in each 2-point band. The red line marks today.
VIX futures front month (VX1!) vs. second month (VX2!), delayed
The VIX index itself can’t be traded; futures can. Usually the second month trades above the first (contango): calm now, uncertainty later. When the front month jumps above the second (backwardation), markets are stressed right now. Live index levels are at Cboe, and the full futures curve at VIX Central.