Informal LogicFallacies of Presumption and Weak Induction

False Cause

False cause claims one thing caused another only because it came first (post hoc) or because the two occur together.

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You met reasoning about causes earlier. When that reasoning skips the checks, it becomes a fallacy.

Key idea

False cause claims that one thing caused another only because it came first (often called post hoc, "after this") or only because the two happen together.

Why it works

Many things come before any event, and many things move together by chance or because of a third cause. Timing is a clue to look further, not a proof. Good causal claims rule out the other explanations.
Tap the sentence where the reasoning goes wrong, then press Check.

Worked example: After, so because?

"Kai started drinking orange juice every morning, and a week later the cold went away. So orange juice cured the cold."
  1. Colds usually clear up in about a week on their own.
  2. The timing fits, but it would fit without the juice too.

Answer: False cause.

Worked example: Together, so because?

"Ice cream sales and sunburns rise in the same months. So ice cream causes sunburn."
  1. Could something else cause both? Yes: hot, sunny weather.
  2. People buy more ice cream and get more sunburns on sunny days, so neither needs to cause the other.

Answer: False cause.

Common mistake

Accepting "it happened right after, so it caused it." Before agreeing, look for other causes (what else changed?), reversed direction, and plain chance.

Practice

Pass with 3 right answers, the last 2 in a row. Each right answer earns 2 XP.

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Sources and further reading

  • OpenStax Introduction to Philosophy, 5.5 Informal Fallacies
  • Internet Encyclopedia of Philosophy, "Fallacies"
  • Patrick Hurley, A Concise Introduction to Logic, chapter 3 (fallacies of weak induction and presumption)
  • Aristotle, Sophistical Refutations (false cause)
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