The debate over population growth is not only an argument among scholars. Governments have tried to change their populations, sometimes to slow growth and sometimes to speed it up. Geographers sort these policies into three kinds.
Key idea
Antinatalist policies try to lower birth rates (family planning, limits on family size). Pronatalist policies try to raise birth rates (payments for children, paid parental leave, child care). Immigration policies decide how many people may move in, and who.
| Example | Kind | What it did |
|---|---|---|
| China, 1980–2015 | Antinatalist | Most urban couples were limited to one child; a two-child limit replaced it in 2016. |
| Singapore, from 1972 | Antinatalist | "Stop at Two" campaign and incentives for small families. |
| Singapore, from 1987 | Pronatalist | Reversed course as births fell: "Have three or more, if you can afford it," with tax and housing incentives. |
| France (long-standing) | Pronatalist | Family allowances, paid parental leave and public child care. |
| Canada, from 1967 | Immigration | A points system that scores applicants on education, skills and language. |
Why it works
Countries with fast growth may worry about feeding, schooling and employing a growing population. Countries with low fertility worry about a shrinking workforce paying for many retirees (a high dependency ratio). Immigration can add working-age people quickly, which is why some low-fertility countries welcome immigrants while others limit them.
A worked example
Worked example: Matching a policy to a problem
A country has a TFR of 1.3 and an aging population. Which kinds of policy might it consider?
- TFR 1.3 is well below replacement (2.1).
- To raise births: pronatalist policies such as child care and parental leave.
- To add workers sooner: more immigration.
Answer: Pronatalist policies, more immigration, or both.
Common mistake
Students think governments can set birth rates easily. Results are mixed. Birth rates in many countries fell without any policy, as people moved to cities and stayed in school longer, and pronatalist payments have often raised births only a little. Education, jobs, housing costs and the cost of raising children often matter more. Whether and how governments should try is debated; know the arguments on each side.