Int. MicroWork, Time and Risk

Present Value

A dollar later is worth less than a dollar now: PV = FV/(1 + r)ᵗ, with shortcuts for annuities and perpetuities.

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A dollar today can be invested and become more than a dollar later, so money at different dates can't be added directly. Compound Interest grew money forward. Present value runs the same calculation backward, and Infinite Geometric Series handles payments that go on for many years.

Key idea

At interest rate $r$ per period: $$PV = \frac{FV}{(1 + r)^t}.$$ An annuity paying $C$ at the end of each of $n$ periods is worth $C\,\dfrac{1 - (1 + r)^{-n}}{r}$; a perpetuity (forever) is worth $\dfrac{C}{r}$; a perpetuity that starts at $C$ and grows at rate $g < r$ is worth $\dfrac{C}{r - g}$.

Why it works

If you put $PV$ in the bank today, it grows to $PV(1 + r)^t$ in $t$ periods. The present value of $FV$ is the deposit that grows to exactly $FV$, so divide. A stream of payments is worth the sum of each payment's present value. For a perpetuity that is a geometric series with first term $\dfrac{C}{1 + r}$ and ratio $\dfrac{1}{1 + r}$: $$\frac{C/(1 + r)}{1 - 1/(1 + r)} = \frac{C}{r}.$$ An annuity is a perpetuity minus the same perpetuity started $n$ periods later, which gives the factor $1 - (1 + r)^{-n}$.
Five payments of \$1,000, each shrunk by its discount factor $1/(1.08)^t$. The later the payment, the less it is worth today. Move the rate and watch all the bars change.

Worked example: One payment

What is \$1,210 received in 2 years worth today at 10%?
  1. $PV = \dfrac{1{,}210}{(1.1)^2} = \dfrac{1{,}210}{1.21} = 1{,}000$.
  2. Check forward: \$1,000 grows to \$1,100 after a year and \$1,210 after two.

Answer: \$1,000.

Worked example: An annuity and a perpetuity

At 10%, value (a) \$1,000 a year for 3 years and (b) \$500 a year forever, each payment at the end of the year.
  1. (a) $$\dfrac{1{,}000}{1.1} + \dfrac{1{,}000}{1.21} + \dfrac{1{,}000}{1.331} \approx 909.09 + 826.45 + 751.31 = 2{,}486.85$$
  2. Formula check: $1{,}000\cdot\dfrac{1 - 1.1^{-3}}{0.1} \approx 2{,}486.85$.
  3. (b) $\dfrac{500}{0.1} = 5{,}000$.

Answer: (a) about \$2,486.85; (b) \$5,000.

Worked example: A growing perpetuity

A payment of \$300 arrives next year and then grows 2% a year forever. Interest is 8%.
  1. $PV = \dfrac{300}{0.08 - 0.02} = \dfrac{300}{0.06} = 5{,}000$.
  2. The formula needs $g < r$; otherwise the payments grow faster than they are discounted and the sum has no finite value.

Answer: \$5,000.

Common mistake

Multiplying by $(1 + r)^t$ when you should divide, or discounting over the wrong number of periods. Multiplying gives a future value; a present value must be smaller than the amount (for $r > 0$). And a payment at the end of year 1 is discounted once, at the end of year 3 three times. Check: is your present value less than the payment itself? Then count the periods between today and the payment.

Try the compounding and bond calculators on Calculators & Links to see how the rate and the timing change a present value.

See it with real dataCalculators & Links

Practice

Pass with 3 right answers, the last 2 in a row. Each right answer earns 2 XP.

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Sources and further reading

  • OpenStax Principles of Microeconomics 3e, appendix C Present Discounted Value
  • OpenStax College Algebra 2e, 9.4 Series and Their Notations
  • MIT OpenCourseWare 14.04 Intermediate Microeconomic Theory (course scope and lecture topics)
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