After secession and Fort Sumter, both sides expected a short war. Each believed the other would give up after a battle or two. Looking at what each side had, and what each side needed to do, helps explain why it lasted four years.
Key idea
The Union had far more people (about 22 million in the loyal states, against about 5.5 million free people and 3.5 million enslaved people in the Confederacy), about 90 percent of the country's manufacturing, and more than twice the railroad mileage. The Confederacy fought mostly on its own ground, had skilled generals such as Robert E. Lee, and needed only to survive. The Union's Anaconda Plan aimed to blockade the Southern coast and seize the Mississippi River.
Why it works
The two sides had different goals, and that matters as much as the numbers. The Union had to invade, conquer and hold a huge territory to bring the seceded states back. The Confederacy only had to make the North tired of the cost, as the colonists had once made Britain give up. Southern leaders also hoped that Britain and France, which needed Southern cotton for their mills, would recognize the Confederacy. They never did.
| Union (loyal states) | Confederacy | |
|---|---|---|
| Free population, 1860 | about 22 million | about 5.5 million |
| Enslaved population | about 430,000 (border states) | about 3.5 million |
| Railroad mileage, 1860 | about 22,000 miles | about 9,500 miles |
| Share of manufacturing | about 90 percent | about 10 percent |
Worked example: Reading the Anaconda Plan
General Winfield Scott's plan in 1861 was to squeeze the Confederacy like a giant snake. What were its two parts, and why would they hurt the South?
- Blockade the Atlantic and Gulf coasts: the South sold cotton abroad and bought weapons and goods abroad, so a blockade cut both.
- Take control of the Mississippi River: that would split Texas, Louisiana and Arkansas from the rest of the Confederacy and open the river to Northern trade.
- Many Northerners wanted a quick march on Richmond instead and mocked the plan as too slow.
- In the end the Union did both: the blockade tightened every year, and Vicksburg's fall in July 1863 gave the Union the river.
Answer: A naval blockade and control of the Mississippi, to cut the South's trade and split it in two.
Common mistake
It is a mistake to think the Union's advantages made the outcome certain. The Confederacy only had to survive until the North gave up, and for much of the war it seemed it might: Union armies lost many early battles in Virginia, and as late as August 1864 Lincoln expected to lose reelection. Victory took four years and depended on battlefield results and Northern will. Check: resources make an outcome more likely, not certain.